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Sheffield United 3–3 Blackpool

← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Webb

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Sheffield United win58%64%1.67value: +7%
Draw24%22%4.05fair
Blackpool win18%14%5.80fair

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sheffield United −0.7552%1.87
Blackpool −0.7548%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.89
Under47%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟥Shayne Lavery · Blackpool
8'⚽James McAtee · Sheffield United
23'⚽Iliman Ndiaye · Sheffield United
30'⚽Jerry Yates · Blackpool
42'⚽Jerry Yates · Blackpool
45'🟨James McAtee · Sheffield United
51'⚽Kenneth Dougall · Blackpool
55'🟨Marvin Ekpiteta · Blackpool
56'🟨George Baldock · Sheffield United
66'🟨Dominic Thompson · Blackpool
72'

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
20Shots10
9On target3
14Corners4
13Fouls10
5Yellow cards0
1Red cards3

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSheffield UnitedBlackpool
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.690.67
cards avg (last 5)2.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBramall Lane
🟨
Oliver Norwood · Sheffield United
72'🟨Anel Ahmedhodžić · Sheffield United
77'🟨Tommy Doyle · Sheffield United
78'🟨Marvin Ekpiteta · Blackpool
78'🟥Marvin Ekpiteta · Blackpool
81'🟨Dominic Thompson · Blackpool
81'🟥Dominic Thompson · Blackpool
90'🟥Wesley Foderingham · Sheffield United
90'⚽Oliver Norwood · Sheffield United

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

2.00
coach days348.00136.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.06
corner diff avg (last 5)0.200.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.205.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.406.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.863.27
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.11
dominance (last 5)0.530.45
elo1708.581554.71
elo momentum (last 5)-20.47-8.62
eye test v1-0.030.13
eye trend v1-0.490.68
first sub minute (last 10)58.4059.80
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.32
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.25
keeper form v1—0.72
league points24.0015.00
league rank5.0019.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2071.20
possession avg (last 5)53.2043.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.250.31
season ppg1.851.15
shot diff avg (last 5)1.80-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.8012.40
skill v10.36-0.88
sot against avg (last 5)3.005.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.304.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.676.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.40
squad age26.39—
state index0.33-0.18
sterile dominance v10.13-1.21
threat rate (last 10)0.280.34
threat rate (last 3)0.240.46
threat rate (last 5)0.260.33
travel km—114.80
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.00