← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Ward
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 44% | 32% | 2.22 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.54 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 28% | 43% | 3.60 | value: +55% ⚠ |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea −0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Sunderland −0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.93 |
| Over | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Oliver Cooper · Swansea |
| 16' | 🟨 | Dan Neil · Sunderland |
| 23' | 🟨 | Corry Evans · Sunderland |
| 45' | ⚽ | Harry Darling · Swansea |
| 51' | ⚽ | Jack Clarke · Sunderland |
| 54' | 🟨 | Jay Fulton · Swansea |
| 54' | 🟨 | Elliot Embleton · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joel Latibeaudiere · Swansea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Clarke · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lynden Gooch · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Swansea.com Stadium |
| coach days | 433.00 | 68.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1614.07 | 1603.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.09 | 7.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.79 |
| league points | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.64 | 0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.55 | 25.05 |
| state index | 0.78 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 401.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |