← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Bankes
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United win | 39% | 45% | 2.45 | value: +11% |
| Stoke win | 32% | 27% | 3.13 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Sheffield United +0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.88 |
| Over | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Ben Wilmot · Stoke |
| 28' | ⚽ | Rhian Brewster · Sheffield United |
| 45' | ⚽ | Phil Jagielka · Stoke |
| 62' | 🟨 | Tariqe Fosu-Henry · Stoke |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ben Wilmot · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tyrese Campbell · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Billy Sharp · Sheffield United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rhys Norrington-Davies · Sheffield United |
| 90' | ⚽ | Liam Delap · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 68.00 | 341.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 3.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1583.56 | 1727.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.24 | 9.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.30 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| league points | 13.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.09 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.54 | 26.93 |
| state index | -0.17 | 0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.94 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 63.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |