← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Scott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 56% | 50% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.82 | fair |
| Swansea win | 19% | 25% | 5.25 | value: +30% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Brom −0.75 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Swansea −0.75 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.93 |
| Under | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Matthew Sorinola · Swansea |
| 41' | 🟨 | Ryan Manning · Swansea |
| 43' | 🟨 | Darnell Furlong · West Brom |
| 47' | 🟨 | Erik Pieters · West Brom |
| 48' | ⚽ | Jake Livermore · West Brom |
| 53' | 🟨 | Tom Rogić · West Brom |
| 65' | ⚽ | Grady Diangana · West Brom |
| 71' | ⚽ | Olivier Ntcham · Swansea |
| 89' | ⚽ | Michael Obafemi · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 21 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days | 0.00 | 426.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.66 | 1.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1609.67 | 1588.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.52 | 8.26 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 50.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| league points | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | 0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.00 | 24.91 |
| state index | 0.01 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 165.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |