← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Tue, Aug 30, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Kavanagh
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 39% | 56% | 2.48 | value: +38% ⚠ |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
| Middlesbrough win | 30% | 17% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough −0.25 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Watford −0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.64 |
| Over | 41% | 2.35 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Muniz · Middlesbrough |
| 24' | ⚽ | Ismaïla Sarr · Watford |
| 38' | 🟨 | Matt Crooks · Middlesbrough |
| 61' | 🟨 | Francisco Sierralta · Watford |
| 82' | 🟨 | Isaiah Jones · Middlesbrough |
| 87' | 🟨 | Paddy McNair · Middlesbrough |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hamza Choudhury · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Riley McGree · Middlesbrough |
| 90' | ⚽ | Vakoun Issouf Bayo · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.83 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 60.00 | 302.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1637.99 | 1609.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.75 | -11.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.84 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.76 |
| league points | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 3.21 | 3.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | 0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.29 | 26.25 |
| state index | 0.06 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | 0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 330.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |