← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Tue, Aug 16, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: L. Doughty
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Luton win | 38% | 35% | 2.56 | fair |
| Bristol City win | 34% | 40% | 2.91 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.42 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Luton +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Bristol City +0 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand