← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Sat, Aug 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 39% | 46% | 2.49 | value: +13% |
| Coventry win | 31% | 27% | 3.21 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Millwall −0.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.59 |
| Over | 40% | 2.46 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Kyle McFadzean · Coventry |
| 18' | 🟨 | Jamie Shackleton · Millwall |
| 28' | ⚽ | Matt Godden · Coventry |
| 30' | 🟨 | Tyler Burey · Millwall |
| 36' | ⚽ | Jake Cooper · Millwall |
| 37' | 🟨 | Gustavo Hamer · Coventry |
| 53' | ⚽ | George Honeyman · Millwall |
| 63' | 🟨 | Benik Afobe · Millwall |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jake Bidwell · Coventry |
| 67' | 🟨 | Gustavo Hamer · Coventry |
| 67' | 🟥 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Coventry |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | The Den |
| Gustavo Hamer · Coventry |
| 68' | 🟨 | Danny McNamara · Millwall |
| 82' | 🟨 | Kyle McFadzean · Coventry |
| 85' | ⚽ | George Saville · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1047.00 | 1991.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 3.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1639.10 | 1593.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.95 | -20.70 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.71 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.30 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 13.13 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.03 | 1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.52 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.74 | 0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |