← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Mon, May 2, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: T. Robinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 66% | 66% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.42 | fair |
| Luton win | 13% | 14% | 7.73 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton −1.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Fulham −1.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.75 |
| Under | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Danny Hylton · Luton |
| 27' | 🟨 | Tom Lockyer · Luton |
| 29' | ⚽ | Tom Cairney · Fulham |
| 35' | 🟨 | Robert Snodgrass · Luton |
| 37' | 🟨 | Henri Lansbury · Luton |
| 39' | ⚽ | Kenny Tete · Fulham |
| 51' | 🟨 | Daniel Potts · Luton |
| 54' | ⚽ | Fabio Carvalho · Fulham |
| 62' | ⚽ | Aleksandar Mitrović · Fulham |
| 65' | ⚽ | Bobby Decordova-Reid · Fulham |
| 79' | ⚽ |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 5 |
| 12 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| 83' | 🟨 | Harry Wilson · Fulham |
| 85' | 🟨 | Admiral Muskwe · Luton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Mitrović · Fulham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Aleksandar Mitrović · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 305.00 | 731.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1745.68 | 1657.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.90 | -1.72 |
| eye test v1 | 0.84 | -0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 45.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | — |
| league points | 87.00 | 72.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 64.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 5.90 | 9.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.98 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.80 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.41 | -1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.81 | 27.39 |
| state index | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 47.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |