← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Tue, Apr 26, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Bond
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 50% | 44% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.67 | fair |
| Swansea win | 23% | 28% | 4.22 | value: +20% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth +0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Swansea +0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.96 |
| Over | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Joël Piroe · Swansea |
| 12' | ⚽ | Joël Piroe · Swansea |
| 30' | 🟨 | Jamal Lowe · Bournemouth |
| 45' | 🟨 | Cyrus Christie · Swansea |
| 53' | 🟨 | Korey Smith · Swansea |
| 56' | 🟨 | Jaidon Anthony · Bournemouth |
| 58' | ⚽ | Cyrus Christie · Swansea |
| 67' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Phillips · Bournemouth |
| 72' | ⚽ | Kieffer Moore · Bournemouth |
| 75' | 🟨 | Philip Billing · Bournemouth |
| 81' | ⚽ (pen) |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 24 |
| 3 | On target | 11 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Swansea.com Stadium |
| Dominic Solanke · Bournemouth |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jefferson Lerma · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dominic Solanke · Bournemouth |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kieffer Moore · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 268.00 | 329.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1629.18 | 1723.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.86 | -6.21 |
| eye test v1 | 0.48 | -1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | — |
| league points | 60.00 | 78.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.20 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.09 | 0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 24.99 | 25.22 |
| state index | 0.18 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.61 | 0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| travel km | — | 177.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |