← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Scott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 39% | 35% | 2.52 | fair |
| Fulham win | 34% | 39% | 2.87 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth +0 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Fulham +0 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.91 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Lewis Cook · Bournemouth |
| 36' | 🟨 | Joe Bryan · Fulham |
| 56' | ⚽ | Aleksandar Mitrović · Fulham |
| 60' | 🟨 | Harrison Reed · Fulham |
| 63' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Phillips · Bournemouth |
| 75' | 🟨 | Antonee Robinson · Fulham |
| 76' | 🟨 | Adam Smith · Bournemouth |
| 88' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Mitrović · Fulham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tosin Adarabioyo · Fulham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kenny Tete · Fulham |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 26 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| Marek Rodák · Fulham |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Dominic Solanke · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 326.00 | 296.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 1.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1723.79 | 1757.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.43 | -12.17 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 1.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 66.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| league points | 77.00 | 86.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 2.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.66 | 1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 25.31 | 26.94 |
| state index | 0.56 | 0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.75 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 139.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |