← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Mon, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Friend
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reading win | 41% | 36% | 2.38 | fair |
| Swansea win | 31% | 38% | 3.20 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.43 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea −0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Reading −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.83 |
| Over | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ (pen) | Lucas João · Reading |
| 6' | ⚽ | Hannes Wolf · Swansea |
| 12' | ⚽ | Joël Piroe · Swansea |
| 20' | 🟨 | Thomas Ince · Reading |
| 41' | 🟨 | Flynn Downes · Swansea |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Joël Piroe · Swansea |
| 55' | 🟨 | Cyrus Christie · Swansea |
| 58' | ⚽ | Michael Obafemi · Swansea |
| 61' | ⚽ | Thomas Ince · Reading |
| 68' | 🟨 | Michael Morrison · Reading |
| 71' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reading | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Select Car Leasing Stadium |
| 90' | 🟨 | Michael Obafemi · Swansea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Olivier Ntcham · Swansea |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tom McIntyre · Reading |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 76.00 | 260.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1529.58 | 1632.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.02 | 31.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.20 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| league points | 46.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 64.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.91 | 1.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.16 | 25.82 |
| state index | 0.27 | 0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | 1.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 205.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |