← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Fri, Apr 15, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: J. Linington
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest win | 37% | 34% | 2.72 | fair |
| Luton win | 34% | 37% | 2.88 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.29 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Luton +0 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.77 |
| Over | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Sonny Bradley · Luton |
| 37' | ⚽ (pen) | Kal Naismith · Luton |
| 44' | 🟨 | James Garner · Nott'm Forest |
| 49' | 🟨 | Kal Naismith · Luton |
| 56' | 🟨 | Fred Onyedinma · Luton |
| 63' | 🟨 | Reece Burke · Luton |
| 63' | 🟨 | Allan Campbell · Luton |
| 63' | 🟨 | Keinan Davis · Nott'm Forest |
| 69' | 🟨 | James Shea · Luton |
| 74' | 🟨 | Joe Worrall · Nott'm Forest |
| 77' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Nott'm Forest |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| Sonny Bradley · Luton |
| 77' | 🟥 | Sonny Bradley · Luton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Elijah Adebayo · Luton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tobias Figueiredo · Nott'm Forest |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 714.00 | 226.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 3.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1641.93 | 1704.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.97 | 51.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | 0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.53 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 44.50 | 68.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.84 |
| league points | 65.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 5.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.93 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.92 | 25.47 |
| state index | 0.37 | 1.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.16 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 126.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |