← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Woolmer
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 62% | 52% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.20 | value: +11% |
| Hull win | 15% | 22% | 6.96 | value: +50% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough −1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Hull −1 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.90 |
| Over | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Matt Crooks · Middlesbrough |
| 26' | 🟨 | Sean McLoughlin · Hull |
| 41' | 🟨 | Regan Slater · Hull |
| 70' | 🟨 | Marcus Tavernier · Middlesbrough |
| 74' | ⚽ | Keane Lewis-Potter · Hull |
| 81' | 🟨 | Aaron Connolly · Middlesbrough |
| 81' | 🟨 | Richard Smallwood · Hull |
| 85' | 🟨 | George Honeyman · Hull |
| 89' | 🟨 | Greg Docherty · Hull |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Riverside Stadium |
| coach days | 159.00 | 98.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.55 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1643.46 | 1543.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.62 | -19.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.74 |
| league points | 62.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 7.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.02 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.34 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.76 | 25.03 |
| state index | 0.57 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 107.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |