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Coventry 2–2 Blackburn

← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Bankes

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Coventry win45%36%2.15fair
Draw29%28%3.50fair
Blackburn win27%36%3.73value: +35%

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Coventry −0.2553%1.84
Blackburn −0.2547%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.88
Over48%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽ (og)Harry Pickering · Coventry
37'🟨Jan Paul van Hecke · Blackburn
46'⚽Bradley Dack · Blackburn
49'🟨Sam Gallagher · Blackburn
63'🟨Ben Brereton Díaz · Blackburn
68'🟨John Buckley · Blackburn
76'🟨Ian Maatsen · Coventry
78'🟨Viktor Gyökeres · Coventry
78'🟨Scott Wharton · Blackburn
82'⚽Scott Wharton · Blackburn
90'

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots11
4On target4
2Corners4
13Fouls16
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCoventryBlackburn
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.720.64
cards avg (last 5)2.001.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueThe Coventry Building Society Arena
⚽
Viktor Gyökeres · Coventry

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

coach days1858.001886.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.05
corner diff avg (last 5)2.204.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.402.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.607.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.312.84
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.10
dominance (last 5)0.600.61
elo1584.191621.08
elo momentum (last 5)-22.75-27.99
eye test v11.04-0.20
eye trend v10.690.19
first sub minute (last 10)63.0055.00
form points (last 5)4.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.340.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
keeper form v10.720.75
league points55.0061.00
league rank11.006.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet7.003.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4072.40
possession avg (last 5)53.0049.20
rest days14.0613.96
scorer concentration0.300.36
season ppg1.451.56
shot diff avg (last 5)5.603.40
shots for avg (last 5)16.2011.60
skill v10.28-0.42
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.404.70
sot for avg (last 3)8.675.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.604.20
squad age26.4424.83
state index-0.07-0.07
sterile dominance v1-0.33-0.08
threat rate (last 10)0.280.24
threat rate (last 3)0.370.28
threat rate (last 5)0.310.23
travel km—157.10
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.20