← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Bankes
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Coventry win | 45% | 36% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
| Blackburn win | 27% | 36% | 3.73 | value: +35% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Coventry −0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Blackburn −0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.88 |
| Over | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | The Coventry Building Society Arena |