← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Wed, Mar 16, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: P. Bankes
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest win | 51% | 44% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.67 | fair |
| QPR win | 22% | 29% | 4.69 | value: +35% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest −0.5 | 53% | 1.84 |
| QPR −0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.91 |
| Over | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Andre Dozzell · QPR |
| 40' | ⚽ | Andre Gray · QPR |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jimmy Dunne · QPR |
| 54' | 🟨 | Samuel Field · QPR |
| 55' | ⚽ | Djed Spence · Nott'm Forest |
| 60' | 🟨 | Lee Wallace · QPR |
| 62' | 🟨 | Ryan Yates · Nott'm Forest |
| 77' | 🟨 | Keinan Davis · Nott'm Forest |
| 80' | 🟨 | Moses Odubajo · QPR |
| 83' | ⚽ | Ryan Yates · Nott'm Forest |
| 87' | ⚽ |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | The City Ground |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 196.00 | 958.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.05 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1661.60 | 1636.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.42 | -6.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.60 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.82 |
| league points | 55.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 60.40 |
| rest days | 4.20 | 3.32 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.44 | 28.61 |
| state index | 0.90 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | 1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| travel km | — | 170.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |