← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Tue, Mar 15, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Bond
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 48% | 41% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.63 | fair |
| Birmingham win | 24% | 30% | 4.02 | value: +22% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham +0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Middlesbrough +0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.88 |
| Over | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Aaron Connolly · Middlesbrough |
| 40' | 🟨 | Kristian Pedersen · Birmingham |
| 62' | ⚽ | Folarin Balogun · Middlesbrough |
| 80' | 🟨 | Onel Hernández · Birmingham |
| 80' | 🟨 | Joe Lumley · Middlesbrough |
| 86' | 🟨 | Kristian Pedersen · Birmingham |
| 86' | 🟥 | Kristian Pedersen · Birmingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matt Crooks · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 10 |
| 0 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | St Andrew's Stadium |
| coach days | 622.00 | 134.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 3.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1519.92 | 1626.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.21 | -6.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.20 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | — |
| league points | 41.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.76 | 0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.00 | 26.50 |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | 1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| travel km | — | 237.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |