← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Sat, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Bramall
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest win | 63% | 52% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.33 | value: +10% |
| Reading win | 15% | 22% | 6.67 | value: +48% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest −1 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Reading −1 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.87 |
| Under | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Keinan Davis · Nott'm Forest |
| 9' | 🟨 | Thomas Ince · Reading |
| 28' | 🟨 | Andy Yiadom · Reading |
| 31' | 🟨 | Jack Colback · Nott'm Forest |
| 38' | 🟨 | Danny Drinkwater · Reading |
| 50' | 🟨 | Michael Morrison · Reading |
| 62' | ⚽ | Keinan Davis · Nott'm Forest |
| 63' | 🟨 | Keinan Davis · Nott'm Forest |
| 75' | ⚽ | Ryan Yates · Nott'm Forest |
| 80' | ⚽ | Sam Surridge · Nott'm Forest |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | The City Ground |
| coach days | 192.00 | 39.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.79 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1653.05 | 1501.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.07 | 3.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.20 | 68.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.58 |
| league points | 52.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 7.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.70 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.32 | 27.89 |
| state index | 0.74 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 169.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |