← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Sat, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Robinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 55% | 57% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.80 | fair |
| Stoke win | 19% | 19% | 5.19 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke −0.75 | 50% | 1.97 |
| Bournemouth −0.75 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.98 |
| Over | 49% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Tommy Smith · Stoke |
| 25' | 🟨 | Tommy Smith · Stoke |
| 32' | 🟥 | Morgan Fox · Stoke |
| 39' | 🟨 | Jacob Brown · Stoke |
| 40' | 🟨 | Chris Mepham · Bournemouth |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jamal Lowe · Bournemouth |
| 57' | 🟨 | Jordan Thompson · Stoke |
| 72' | 🟨 | Lewis Cook · Bournemouth |
| 82' | 🟨 | Lloyd Kelly · Bournemouth |
| 83' | ⚽ | Dominic Solanke · Bournemouth |
| 89' | ⚽ |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 270.00 | 1152.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 1.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1723.17 | 1601.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.20 | 3.66 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.59 |
| league points | 58.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 61.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.93 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.25 | 1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 24.20 | 24.89 |
| state index | 0.57 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.25 | 0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 251.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |