← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Wed, Feb 23, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Busby
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 46% | 46% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.36 | fair |
| Luton win | 25% | 26% | 3.91 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke −0.25 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Luton −0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.70 |
| Over | 43% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Allan Campbell · Luton |
| 51' | 🟨 | Harry Cornick · Luton |
| 56' | ⚽ | Danny Hylton · Luton |
| 80' | 🟨 | Nick Powell · Stoke |
| 80' | 🟨 | Tom Lockyer · Luton |
| 81' | ⚽ | Cameron Jerome · Luton |
| 82' | 🟨 | Danny Hylton · Luton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Elijah Adebayo · Luton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Reece Burke · Luton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lewis Baker · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.82 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 1149.00 | 663.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1612.68 | 1625.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.55 | 7.80 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | -1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | — |
| league points | 44.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 58.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.13 | -2.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 25.65 | 27.21 |
| state index | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.76 | -0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 170.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |