← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Wed, Feb 23, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: O. Langford
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield win | 40% | 38% | 2.50 | fair |
| Cardiff win | 30% | 36% | 3.21 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Huddersfield −0.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.59 |
| Over | 40% | 2.47 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Mark McGuinness · Cardiff |
| 61' | ⚽ | Tommy Doyle · Cardiff |
| 74' | 🟨 | Mark Harris · Cardiff |
| 76' | 🟨 | Tommy Doyle · Cardiff |
| 79' | 🟨 | Jordan Hugill · Cardiff |
| 85' | 🟨 | Joel Bagan · Cardiff |
| 88' | ⚽ | Josh Koroma · Huddersfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sorba Thomas · Huddersfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jon Russell · Huddersfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Will Vaulks · Cardiff |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 12 | Corners | 2 |
| 5 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huddersfield | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | John Smith's Stadium |
| Alex Smithies · Cardiff |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jon Russell · Huddersfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 602.00 | 145.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1628.70 | 1583.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.19 | 24.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.57 |
| league points | 53.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 64.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 4.30 | 4.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | -1.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.47 | 28.67 |
| state index | 0.63 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | -1.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 261.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |