← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Sat, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Dean
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 59% | 43% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.80 | value: +14% |
| Derby win | 16% | 27% | 6.34 | value: +71% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Derby −0.75 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.66 |
| Over | 42% | 2.32 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ (og) | Lee Buchanan · Middlesbrough |
| 27' | 🟨 | Marcus Tavernier · Middlesbrough |
| 27' | 🟨 | Tom Lawrence · Derby |
| 31' | 🟨 | Matt Crooks · Middlesbrough |
| 39' | ⚽ | Max Bird · Derby |
| 44' | ⚽ | Aaron Connolly · Middlesbrough |
| 45' | ⚽ | Matt Crooks · Middlesbrough |
| 50' | 🟨 | Jonathan Howson · Middlesbrough |
| 87' | 🟨 | Malcolm Ebiowei · Derby |
| 89' | ⚽ | Duncan Watmore · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Riverside Stadium |
| coach days | 103.00 | 468.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1633.38 | 1574.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.22 | 7.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | -1.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.60 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.71 |
| league points | 46.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | -0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.40 | 25.75 |
| state index | 0.65 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| travel km | — | 185.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |