← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Mon, Jan 24, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: D. England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 36% | 28% | 2.71 | fair |
| Blackburn win | 34% | 46% | 2.93 | value: +34% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Blackburn +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.60 |
| Over | 40% | 2.46 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Neil Taylor · Middlesbrough |
| 15' | 🟨 | Matt Crooks · Middlesbrough |
| 26' | 🟨 | Aaron Connolly · Middlesbrough |
| 29' | 🟨 | Marcus Tavernier · Middlesbrough |
| 37' | 🟨 | Ryan Nyambe · Blackburn |
| 50' | 🟨 | Lewis Travis · Blackburn |
| 76' | ⚽ | Sam Gallagher · Blackburn |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adetayo Edun · Blackburn |
| 90' | 🟨 | Scott Wharton · Blackburn |
| 90' | 🟨 | Isaiah Jones · Middlesbrough |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Blackburn | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Ewood Park |
| 🟨 |
| Paddy McNair · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1818.00 | 84.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1669.63 | 1629.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.03 | 45.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 66.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.76 |
| league points | 49.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 9.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 1.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.96 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 24.48 | 25.90 |
| state index | 0.78 | 0.94 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.70 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 125.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |