← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Tue, Jan 18, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: G. Ward
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 73% | 75% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 17% | 5.50 | fair |
| Birmingham win | 9% | 9% | 11.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham −1.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Fulham −1.5 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.68 |
| Under | 43% | 2.29 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ (og) | Marc Roberts · Fulham |
| 35' | ⚽ | Neeskens Kebano · Fulham |
| 38' | ⚽ | Fabio Carvalho · Fulham |
| 43' | ⚽ | Tom Cairney · Fulham |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ivan Šunjić · Birmingham |
| 52' | 🟨 | Kristian Pedersen · Birmingham |
| 67' | 🟨 | Harrison Reed · Fulham |
| 74' | ⚽ | Gary Gardner · Birmingham |
| 75' | ⚽ | Fabio Carvalho · Fulham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Antonee Robinson · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 11 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 201.00 | 566.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1754.49 | 1516.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.54 | -23.86 |
| eye test v1 | 1.29 | -0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.50 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.90 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| league points | 51.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 67.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.00 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.04 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.60 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.70 | -0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.53 | 27.31 |
| state index | 1.17 | -0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.00 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 158.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |