← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Sat, Jan 15, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Donohue
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn win | 40% | 36% | 2.47 | fair |
| Cardiff win | 30% | 39% | 3.26 | value: +28% |
| Draw | 30% | 25% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Blackburn +0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.60 |
| Over | 40% | 2.45 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Joe Rothwell · Blackburn |
| 40' | 🟨 | Cody Drameh · Cardiff |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jan Paul van Hecke · Blackburn |
| 50' | 🟨 | Lewis Travis · Blackburn |
| 56' | 🟨 | Darragh Lenihan · Blackburn |
| 59' | 🟨 | Perry Ng · Cardiff |
| 60' | 🟨 | Ryan Nyambe · Blackburn |
| 73' | 🟨 | James Collins · Cardiff |
| 76' | 🟨 | Ryan Nyambe · Blackburn |
| 76' | 🟥 | Ryan Nyambe · Blackburn |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 4 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| Marlon Pack · Cardiff |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thomas Kaminski · Blackburn |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sam Gallagher · Blackburn |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 106.00 | 1809.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1566.87 | 1679.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.97 | 37.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.68 |
| league points | 23.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 64.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 12.94 | 12.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.63 | -1.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.67 | 24.24 |
| state index | -0.37 | 1.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.61 | -1.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 255.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |