← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Wed, Dec 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 43% | 34% | 2.27 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.30 | value: +5% |
| Blackpool win | 28% | 34% | 3.55 | value: +21% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough +0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Blackpool +0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.63 |
| Over | 41% | 2.39 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Callum Connolly · Blackpool |
| 40' | 🟨 | Dael Fry · Middlesbrough |
| 44' | 🟨 | James Husband · Blackpool |
| 60' | ⚽ | Andraž Šporar · Middlesbrough |
| 61' | 🟨 | Andraž Šporar · Middlesbrough |
| 71' | 🟨 | Matt Crooks · Middlesbrough |
| 89' | 🟨 | Lee Peltier · Middlesbrough |
| 90' | ⚽ | Shayne Lavery · Blackpool |
| 90' | ⚽ | Duncan Watmore · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Blackpool | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.81 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Bloomfield Road |
| coach days | 668.00 | 58.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 3.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1555.61 | 1613.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.60 | 51.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.58 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 64.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.78 |
| league points | 30.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.36 |
| state index | -0.44 | 0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 146.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |