← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Sat, Dec 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 52% | 61% | 1.88 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 27% | 21% | 3.60 | fair |
| Blackburn win | 21% | 17% | 4.87 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth −0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Blackburn −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.78 |
| Over | 45% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ (og) | Ben Pearson · Blackburn |
| 38' | 🟨 | Lewis Cook · Bournemouth |
| 42' | 🟨 | Ben Brereton Díaz · Blackburn |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jack Stacey · Bournemouth |
| 62' | 🟨 | Emiliano Marcondes · Bournemouth |
| 65' | ⚽ | Jan Paul van Hecke · Blackburn |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jan Paul van Hecke · Blackburn |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Rothwell · Blackburn |
| 90' | 🟨 | John Buckley · Blackburn |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 193.00 | 1774.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.81 | 1.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1747.34 | 1649.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.24 | 39.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.30 | 50.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.56 |
| league points | 43.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 7.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 2.05 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | -0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.87 | 23.66 |
| state index | 0.44 | 0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.16 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 335.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |