← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Fri, Dec 3, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: T. Robinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 53% | 46% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.81 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 21% | 29% | 4.74 | value: +35% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham −0.5 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Bournemouth −0.5 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.88 |
| Under | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Lewis Cook · Bournemouth |
| 34' | 🟨 | Jack Stacey · Bournemouth |
| 46' | ⚽ | Dominic Solanke · Bournemouth |
| 51' | 🟨 | Fabio Carvalho · Fulham |
| 61' | 🟨 | Adam Smith · Bournemouth |
| 62' | 🟨 | Mark Travers · Bournemouth |
| 68' | 🟨 | Joe Bryan · Fulham |
| 80' | 🟨 | Ryan Christie · Bournemouth |
| 82' | 🟨 | Bobby Decordova-Reid · Fulham |
| 84' | ⚽ | Tosin Adarabioyo · Fulham |
| 88' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| Philip Billing · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 155.00 | 185.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1751.95 | 1745.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.13 | -28.18 |
| eye test v1 | 1.09 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 69.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.81 |
| league points | 43.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 6.30 | 6.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.15 | 2.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.48 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.14 | 24.87 |
| state index | 1.36 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.86 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 139.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |