← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Sun, Nov 28, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: G. Eltringham
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United win | 64% | 54% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.36 | fair |
| Bristol City win | 14% | 23% | 7.25 | value: +68% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United −1 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Bristol City −1 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.85 |
| Under | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Daniel Bentley · Bristol City |
| 28' | 🟨 | Callum O'Dowda · Bristol City |
| 31' | 🟨 | Morgan Gibbs-White · Sheffield United |
| 39' | 🟨 | Chris Martin · Bristol City |
| 40' | ⚽ | Rhian Brewster · Sheffield United |
| 78' | 🟨 | Billy Sharp · Sheffield United |
| 84' | 🟨 | Andreas Weimann · Bristol City |
| 89' | ⚽ | Billy Sharp · Sheffield United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ben Davies · Sheffield United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sheffield United | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Bramall Lane |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 27.00 | 300.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1616.14 | 1505.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.66 | 5.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 48.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.72 |
| league points | 23.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 63.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 4.69 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.94 | -1.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.56 | 24.57 |
| state index | 0.15 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.18 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |