← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Sun, Nov 21, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Ward
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Bournemouth win | 53% | 52% | 1.82 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.55 | fair |
| Derby win | 20% | 21% | 5.06 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Bournemouth +0.5 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Derby +0.5 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.63 |
| Over | 40% | 2.39 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand