← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Sat, Nov 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Harrington
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 53% | 52% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.45 | fair |
| Swansea win | 19% | 21% | 5.16 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea −0.75 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Bournemouth −0.75 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.74 |
| Over | 45% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Dominic Solanke · Bournemouth |
| 29' | 🟨 | Philip Billing · Bournemouth |
| 30' | 🟨 | Flynn Downes · Swansea |
| 39' | 🟨 | Ryan Bennett · Swansea |
| 40' | 🟨 | Dominic Solanke · Bournemouth |
| 49' | ⚽ | Dominic Solanke · Bournemouth |
| 54' | 🟨 | Olivier Ntcham · Swansea |
| 64' | ⚽ | Jaidon Anthony · Bournemouth |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jaidon Anthony · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 158.00 | 97.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1757.58 | 1650.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.53 | 34.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.20 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.76 |
| league points | 37.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 67.00 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 2.31 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.25 | 1.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.04 | 27.86 |
| state index | 1.15 | 0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.11 | 1.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| travel km | — | 177.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |