← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Tue, Nov 2, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: T. Robinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 42% | 36% | 2.30 | fair |
| Middlesbrough win | 29% | 34% | 3.39 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough −0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Luton −0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.77 |
| Over | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Josh Coburn · Middlesbrough |
| 30' | 🟨 | Daniel Potts · Luton |
| 31' | 🟨 | James Bree · Luton |
| 39' | 🟨 | Matt Crooks · Middlesbrough |
| 57' | ⚽ | Sonny Bradley · Luton |
| 59' | 🟨 | Josh Coburn · Middlesbrough |
| 60' | ⚽ | Elijah Adebayo · Luton |
| 62' | ⚽ | Harry Cornick · Luton |
| 70' | 🟨 | Fred Onyedinma · Luton |
| 74' | 🟨 | Duncan Watmore · Middlesbrough |
| 79' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| Henri Lansbury · Luton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 550.00 | 1.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 3.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1594.23 | 1581.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.69 | 7.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | 0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.50 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| league points | 21.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 3.24 | 3.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.16 | -0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 28.18 | 28.49 |
| state index | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | -1.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.37 |
| travel km | — | 304.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |