← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Sat, Oct 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 35% | 34% | 2.77 | fair |
| Blackburn win | 34% | 38% | 2.94 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby +0 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Blackburn +0 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.58 |
| Over | 39% | 2.49 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Ben Brereton Díaz · Blackburn |
| 20' | ⚽ | Ben Brereton Díaz · Blackburn |
| 29' | 🟨 | Graeme Shinnie · Derby |
| 50' | 🟨 | Tom Lawrence · Derby |
| 59' | 🟨 | Darragh Lenihan · Blackburn |
| 85' | 🟨 | John Buckley · Blackburn |
| 88' | 🟨 | Reda Khadra · Blackburn |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ian Carlo Poveda · Blackburn |
| 89' | ⚽ | Curtis Davies · Derby |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lewis Travis · Blackburn |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Pride Park Stadium |
| coach days | 363.00 | 1732.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.51 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1540.16 | 1619.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.27 | -18.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 50.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.72 |
| league points | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.41 | -0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 24.78 |
| state index | 0.11 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.16 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 113.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |