← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Sat, Sep 18, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: D. Whitestone
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United win | 46% | 43% | 2.11 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.41 | fair |
| Hull win | 25% | 31% | 3.82 | value: +18% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United +0.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Hull +0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.69 |
| Over | 43% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Billy Sharp · Sheffield United |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jacob Greaves · Hull |
| 48' | 🟨 | George Honeyman · Hull |
| 50' | ⚽ | John Egan · Sheffield United |
| 53' | 🟨 | Rhys Norrington-Davies · Sheffield United |
| 57' | 🟨 | Richard Smallwood · Hull |
| 61' | ⚽ | John Egan · Sheffield United |
| 66' | 🟨 | Adlène Guédioura · Sheffield United |
| 74' | ⚽ | Keane Lewis-Potter · Hull |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | The MKM Stadium |
| coach days | 840.00 | 201.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1582.12 | 1627.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.14 | -17.94 |
| eye test v1 | -1.25 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | 0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.69 |
| league points | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 66.80 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | 1.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.59 | 27.85 |
| state index | -0.65 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | 1.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 84.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |