← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Sat, Aug 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Webb
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry win | 46% | 37% | 2.11 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.31 | fair |
| Reading win | 25% | 36% | 3.96 | value: +44% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry −0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Reading −0.25 | 47% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.68 |
| Over | 43% | 2.27 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Dominic Hyam · Coventry |
| 40' | ⚽ (pen) | John Swift · Reading |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ian Maatsen · Coventry |
| 50' | 🟨 | Tom Dele-Bashiru · Reading |
| 62' | ⚽ | Jamie Allen · Coventry |
| 75' | 🟨 | Andy Rinomhota · Reading |
| 78' | 🟨 | Callum O'Hare · Coventry |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gustavo Hamer · Coventry |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ben Sheaf · Coventry |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jahmari Clarke · Reading |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Coventry | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | The Coventry Building Society Arena |
| Matt Godden · Coventry |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1634.00 | 385.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.39 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1588.95 | 1593.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.36 | -29.55 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.10 | 66.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| league points | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.79 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.67 | 26.27 |
| state index | 0.87 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 119.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |