← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Fri, Aug 20, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: G. Eltringham
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City win | 43% | 29% | 2.27 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.25 | fair |
| Swansea win | 27% | 44% | 3.60 | value: +57% ⚠ |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Swansea −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.72 |
| Over | 44% | 2.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Jay Fulton · Swansea |
| 19' | ⚽ | Joël Piroe · Swansea |
| 35' | 🟨 | Joël Piroe · Swansea |
| 36' | 🟨 | Danny Simpson · Bristol City |
| 47' | 🟨 | Ryan Manning · Swansea |
| 57' | 🟨 | Jake Bidwell · Swansea |
| 58' | 🟨 | Andreas Weimann · Bristol City |
| 67' | 🟨 | Joel Latibeaudiere · Swansea |
| 76' | 🟨 | Robert Atkinson · Bristol City |
| 84' | 🟨 | Antoine Semenyo · Bristol City |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bristol City | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Ashton Gate |
| 🟨 |
| Matt Grimes · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 200.00 | 19.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1490.50 | 1633.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.65 | -37.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.94 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.00 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.72 |
| league points | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 61.60 |
| rest days | 2.99 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.27 | 1.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.86 | 24.23 |
| state index | -0.61 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | 1.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |