← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Sun, Aug 8, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Linington
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Coventry win | 42% | 36% | 2.35 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
| Nott'm Forest win | 27% | 33% | 3.71 | value: +24% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Coventry −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Nott'm Forest −0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.63 |
| Over | 41% | 2.39 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 0 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | The Coventry Building Society Arena |