← EFL Championship 2020-21 · Sat, May 8, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry win | 38% | 31% | 2.55 | fair |
| Millwall win | 34% | 39% | 2.97 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.40 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry +0 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Millwall +0 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.77 |
| Over | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Danny McNamara · Millwall |
| 16' | ⚽ | Jordan Shipley · Coventry |
| 45' | 🟨 | George Evans · Millwall |
| 45' | ⚽ | Kyle McFadzean · Coventry |
| 54' | ⚽ (og) | Kyle McFadzean · Millwall |
| 59' | ⚽ | Dominic Hyam · Coventry |
| 62' | ⚽ | Callum O'Hare · Coventry |
| 67' | ⚽ | Matty James · Coventry |
| 69' | 🟨 | Ryan Woods · Millwall |
| 81' | 🟨 | Kyle McFadzean · Coventry |
| 84' | ⚽ |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 12 |
| 11 | On target | 0 |
| 10 | Corners | 8 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Coventry | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium |
| Tyler Walker · Coventry |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1529.00 | 585.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1556.45 | 1606.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.99 | -23.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | 0.69 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.67 |
| league points | 52.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.66 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.45 | 26.15 |
| state index | 0.52 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.98 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |