← EFL Championship 2020-21 · Sat, May 8, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: K. Stroud
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn win | 64% | 55% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 24% | 4.78 | value: +15% |
| Birmingham win | 15% | 21% | 7.00 | value: +47% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn −1 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Birmingham −1 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.77 |
| Under | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Kristian Pedersen · Birmingham |
| 27' | 🟨 | Jonathan Leko · Birmingham |
| 27' | ⚽ (pen) | Adam Armstrong · Blackburn |
| 40' | 🟨 | Ryan Stirk · Birmingham |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ben Brereton Díaz · Blackburn |
| 50' | ⚽ | Lukas Jutkiewicz · Birmingham |
| 67' | 🟨 | Kristian Pedersen · Birmingham |
| 71' | ⚽ | Adam Armstrong · Blackburn |
| 83' | ⚽ | Harvey Elliott · Blackburn |
| 85' | ⚽ | Adam Armstrong · Blackburn |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 5 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Blackburn | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.58 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| venue | Ewood Park |
| coach days | 1557.00 | 311.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 1.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1585.11 | 1521.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.76 | 25.44 |
| eye test v1 | 1.05 | -0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.85 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.64 |
| league points | 54.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 59.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | -1.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 24.48 | 24.77 |
| state index | 0.34 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | -0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 145.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |