← EFL Championship 2020-21 · Sat, Apr 17, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Scott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich win | 47% | 47% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 26% | 27% | 3.70 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Bournemouth −0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.76 |
| Under | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Emiliano Buendía · Norwich |
| 17' | 🟥 | Dimitrios Giannoulis · Norwich |
| 35' | 🟨 | Jefferson Lerma · Bournemouth |
| 50' | ⚽ | Sam Surridge · Bournemouth |
| 52' | 🟨 | Tim Krul · Norwich |
| 57' | ⚽ | Arnaut Danjuma · Bournemouth |
| 58' | 🟨 | Kenny McLean · Norwich |
| 59' | 🟨 | Adam Smith · Bournemouth |
| 70' | 🟨 | David Brooks · Bournemouth |
| 76' | ⚽ | Lloyd Kelly · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 7 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Norwich | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.81 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Carrow Road |
| Oliver Skipp · Norwich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1447.00 | 75.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.28 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1761.53 | 1713.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.48 | 54.87 |
| eye test v1 | 1.28 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 70.40 | 61.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.88 | — |
| league points | 90.00 | 71.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 7.21 | 4.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.20 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.73 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.60 | 26.38 |
| state index | 1.43 | 1.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.77 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 301.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |