← EFL Championship 2020-21 · Mon, Apr 5, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: D Webb
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Cardiff win | 36% | 2.75 |
| Sheffield Weds win | 33% | 2.91 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.19 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Cardiff +0 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Sheffield Weds +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.57 |
| Over | 38% | 2.51 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.