← EFL Championship 2020-21 · Mon, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Stroud
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest win | 36% | 44% | 2.64 | value: +15% |
| QPR win | 34% | 28% | 2.83 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.38 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| QPR +0 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.71 |
| Over | 43% | 2.23 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Ryan Yates · Nott'm Forest |
| 44' | ⚽ | Alex Mighten · Nott'm Forest |
| 63' | ⚽ | Lewis Grabban · Nott'm Forest |
| 66' | 🟨 | Filip Krovinović · Nott'm Forest |
| 69' | ⚽ | James Garner · Nott'm Forest |
| 73' | 🟨 | Stefan Johansen · QPR |
| 89' | 🟨 | Cyrus Christie · Nott'm Forest |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lyndon Dykes · QPR |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | The City Ground |
| coach days | 186.00 | 613.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 1.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1596.04 | 1602.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.02 | 14.34 |
| eye test v1 | -1.49 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | 0.69 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.20 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.68 |
| league points | 45.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.20 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | 0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.48 | 26.87 |
| state index | -0.07 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | 0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 170.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |