← EFL Championship 2020-21 · Fri, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C Kavanagh
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Watford win | 61% | 1.57 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.86 |
| Sheffield Weds win | 14% | 7.39 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sheffield Weds −1 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Watford −1 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over | 47% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.