← EFL Championship 2020-21 · Tue, Jan 19, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Whitestone
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reading win | 43% | 52% | 2.28 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
| Coventry win | 27% | 23% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reading −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Coventry −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.57 |
| Over | 38% | 2.52 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Lucas João · Reading |
| 29' | 🟨 | Thomas Holmes · Reading |
| 46' | ⚽ | Andy Rinomhota · Reading |
| 60' | 🟨 | Kyle McFadzean · Coventry |
| 71' | 🟨 | Kyle McFadzean · Coventry |
| 71' | 🟥 | Kyle McFadzean · Coventry |
| 72' | ⚽ | John Swift · Reading |
| 80' | 🟨 | Leo Østigard · Coventry |
| 87' | 🟨 | Lucas João · Reading |
| 90' | 🟨 | Michael Morrison · Reading |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 0 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reading | Coventry |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| venue | Madejski Stadium |
| coach days | 171.00 | 1420.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1622.95 | 1556.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.75 | -8.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| league points | 40.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 17.13 | 17.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | -0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.23 | 25.07 |
| state index | 0.23 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.60 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 119.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |