← EFL Championship 2020-21 · Sat, Jan 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Harrington
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Norwich win | 43% | 2.25 |
| Cardiff win | 29% | 3.30 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.63 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Norwich +0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Cardiff +0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.88 |
| Under | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 26 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |