← EFL Championship 2020-21 · Tue, Dec 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: O. Langford
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich win | 59% | 63% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 20% | 4.32 | fair |
| QPR win | 18% | 16% | 5.34 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| QPR −1 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Norwich −1 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.57 |
| Under | 39% | 2.53 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Todd Kane · QPR |
| 73' | 🟨 | Dominic Ball · QPR |
| 75' | 🟨 | Robert Dickie · QPR |
| 75' | ⚽ (pen) | Teemu Pukki · Norwich |
| 84' | 🟨 | Christoph Zimmermann · Norwich |
| 84' | ⚽ (pen) | Bright Osayi-Samuel · QPR |
| 87' | 🟨 | Kenny McLean · Norwich |
| 88' | 🟨 | Tom Carroll · QPR |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oliver Skipp · Norwich |
| 90' | 🟨 | Macauley Bonne · QPR |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 12 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Norwich | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Carrow Road |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1338.00 | 516.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1679.52 | 1517.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.93 | -16.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.70 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| league points | 43.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.05 | 0.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | -0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.52 | 26.44 |
| state index | 0.91 | -0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 162.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |