← EFL Championship 2019-20 · Wed, Jul 22, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Bond
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 49% | 31% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
| Blackburn win | 25% | 46% | 3.80 | value: +73% ⚠ |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn −0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Luton −0.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.73 |
| Under | 45% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Adam Armstrong · Blackburn |
| 28' | ⚽ (og) | Hayden Carter · Luton |
| 35' | ⚽ (og) | Bradley Johnson · Luton |
| 37' | 🟨 | Lewis Travis · Blackburn |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | James Collins · Luton |
| 65' | 🟨 | Harry Cornick · Luton |
| 75' | ⚽ | Sam Gallagher · Blackburn |
| 83' | 🟨 | Cameron Carter-Vickers · Luton |
| 88' | 🟨 | Danny Hylton · Luton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luke Berry · Luton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| coach days | 82.00 | 1267.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1553.07 | 1619.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.53 | 2.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.60 |
| league points | 48.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 4.19 | 4.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.79 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.92 |
| state index | -0.19 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 247.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |