← EFL Championship 2019-20 · Sat, Jul 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Simpson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 40% | 32% | 2.37 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.22 | fair |
| Middlesbrough win | 30% | 38% | 3.29 | value: +26% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Cardiff +0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.68 |
| Over | 42% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | George Saville · Middlesbrough |
| 4' | ⚽ | Sean Morrison · Cardiff |
| 19' | 🟨 | George Friend · Middlesbrough |
| 47' | ⚽ | Josh Murphy · Cardiff |
| 77' | 🟨 | Jonathan Howson · Middlesbrough |
| 81' | ⚽ | Josh Murphy · Cardiff |
| 84' | 🟨 | Sean Morrison · Cardiff |
| 85' | ⚽ | Britt Assombalonga · Middlesbrough |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jonathan Howson · Middlesbrough |
| 89' | 🟥 | Jonathan Howson · Middlesbrough |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| venue | Riverside Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Leandro Bacuna · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 47.00 | 260.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1581.55 | 1667.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.84 | -14.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 66.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| league points | 50.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 3.88 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.92 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.91 | 28.67 |
| state index | -0.18 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.32 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 369.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |