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Huddersfield 2–1 West Brom

← EFL Championship 2019-20 · Fri, Jul 17, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Brooks

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
West Brom win58%51%1.66fair
Draw25%23%3.80fair
Huddersfield win17%26%5.74value: +48%

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
West Brom +0.7552%1.87
Huddersfield +0.7548%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.74
Over45%2.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Chris Willock · Huddersfield
19'🟨Trevoh Chalobah · Huddersfield
23'🟨Chris Willock · Huddersfield
30'🟨Matt Phillips · West Brom
38'🟨Hal Robson-Kanu · West Brom
42'⚽Dara O'Shea · West Brom
53'🟨Conor Townsend · West Brom
60'🟨Fraizer Campbell · Huddersfield
81'🟨Filip Krovinović · West Brom
85'🟨Jonas Lössl · Huddersfield
86'

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
7Shots13
4On target4
2Corners7
19Fouls17
4Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuddersfieldWest Brom
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.610.65
cards avg (last 5)1.202.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJohn Smith's Stadium
⚽
Emile Smith Rowe · Huddersfield
88'🟨Darnell Furlong · West Brom
90'🟨Charlie Austin · West Brom

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

coach days16.00412.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d6.006.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.802.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.807.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.753.11
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.06
dominance (last 5)0.490.64
elo1532.301746.30
elo momentum (last 5)10.5923.09
eye test v1-0.720.81
eye trend v1-0.300.23
first sub minute (last 10)54.4054.40
form points (last 5)6.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.201.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.602.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.491.48
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.45
keeper form v10.610.75
league points48.0082.00
league rank20.002.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win4.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.2078.20
possession avg (last 5)52.4048.60
rest days2.913.02
scorer concentration0.290.13
season ppg1.091.86
shot diff avg (last 5)0.606.60
shots for avg (last 5)9.6015.80
skill v10.010.05
sot against avg (last 5)2.402.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.705.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.006.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.206.00
squad age25.8826.84
state index-0.100.96
sterile dominance v10.49-0.71
threat rate (last 10)0.210.31
threat rate (last 3)0.140.36
threat rate (last 5)0.190.34
travel km—128.00
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.60