← EFL Championship 2019-20 · Wed, Jul 15, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Langford
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest win | 38% | 44% | 2.54 | value: +12% |
| Swansea win | 32% | 29% | 2.99 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.21 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest +0 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Swansea +0 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.71 |
| Over | 43% | 2.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Rhian Brewster · Swansea |
| 20' | ⚽ | Sammy Ameobi · Nott'm Forest |
| 32' | 🟨 | Samba Sow · Nott'm Forest |
| 38' | 🟨 | Tobias Figueiredo · Nott'm Forest |
| 45' | 🟨 | Conor Gallagher · Swansea |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | André Ayew · Swansea |
| 49' | 🟨 | Carl Jenkinson · Nott'm Forest |
| 55' | ⚽ | Sammy Ameobi · Nott'm Forest |
| 82' | 🟥 | Kyle Naughton · Swansea |
| 84' | 🟨 | Tiago Silva · Nott'm Forest |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | The City Ground |
| 🟨 |
| George Byers · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 410.00 | 410.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.28 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1648.06 | 1635.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.32 | -0.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 64.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| league points | 69.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 4.13 | 3.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.73 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.49 | 24.87 |
| state index | 0.24 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | 0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 239.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |