← EFL Championship 2019-20 · Tue, Jul 14, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Harrington
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wigan win | 54% | 41% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.85 | fair |
| Hull win | 21% | 33% | 4.60 | value: +54% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hull −0.75 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Wigan −0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.83 |
| Under | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Kal Naismith · Wigan |
| 27' | ⚽ | Kieffer Moore · Wigan |
| 32' | ⚽ | Kieran Dowell · Wigan |
| 33' | 🟨 | George Honeyman · Hull |
| 37' | ⚽ | Jamal Lowe · Wigan |
| 40' | ⚽ | Kieffer Moore · Wigan |
| 42' | ⚽ | Kieran Dowell · Wigan |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jon Toral · Hull |
| 45' | ⚽ | Joe Williams · Wigan |
| 65' | ⚽ | Kieran Dowell · Wigan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 7 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wigan | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | DW Stadium |
| coach days | 1170.00 | 409.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1621.41 | 1506.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.33 | -7.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.83 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.59 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.88 | 0.50 |
| league points | 54.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 63.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 3.13 | 3.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | -1.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.81 | 25.66 |
| state index | 0.61 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | -1.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 152.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |